Max Agbonkpolo
Off. Pts/Poss. Scored: 1.05
Def. Pts/Poss. Allowed: 0.98
Overall Plus-Minus: +25
Notes: With Max on the court, we don't rebound as well on the offensive end, turn the ball over slightly less, and shoot quite a bit better from behind the arc with our 3P% going from 29.7% to 40%. On defense, we actually force about 20% more turnovers, but we really let our opponents go wild from behind the arc with their 3P% going from 35.3% to 42.6%. This may reflect Max struggling to guard opposing shooting guards.

Isaiah White
Off. Pts/Poss. Scored: 1.03
Def. Pts/Poss. Allowed: 0.90
Overall Plus-Minus: +41
Notes: IW's impact on the court has turned starkly positive in recent weeks. On the offensive end, we stay about the same, with 3-point shooting dipping, turnovers rising, but offensive rebounding and drawing fouls ticking up. But it's really on defense where IW has made the impact: opposing teams are shooting only 32.2% from inside the arc when IW is on the court; that number is actually lower than the 3P% of 39.3% when IW is out there. We also force turnovers on about 15% more of possessions when IW is out there.

Kobe Johnson
Off. Pts/Poss. Scored: 0.91
Def. Pts/Poss. Allowed: 0.87
Overall Plus-Minus: +9
Notes: Kobe and Joshua Morgan are basically the dynamic duo on scoreboard freeze when their on the court, with neither team being able to score much when either is on the court. On offense, we're kind of just worse across the board with Kobe out there, but the biggest number seems to be a cratering 3P% of 28.6% combined with an increased percentage of shots from behind the arc: 41.9% of FGAs. On defense, Kobe's presence has correlated with much, much better defense of the 3-point line, with our opponents shooting only 28.3% compared to 40.8% when he's on the bench. Interestingly, despite the much lower conversion rate from behind the arc, our opponents are shooting more 3s when Kobe is on the court.

Joshua Morgan
Off. Pts/Poss. Scored: 0.95
Def. Pts/Poss. Allowed: 0.88
Overall Plus-Minus: +12
Notes: Like his counterpart Kobe, pretty much all offensive metrics crash with Joshua on the court: our offensive rebounding reduces, our 2P% drops to 43.7% from 50%, and our 3-point shooting crashes from 37% to 28.4%. Joshua makes up for this somewhat on defense, where his presence correlates reduced shooting from both inside and outside the arc; teams also attempt slightly fewer 3s. Unfortunately, our defensive rebounding ticks down with Morgan on the court.

I left the two most interesting guys for last.

Reese Dixon-Waters
Off. Pts/Poss. Scored: 1.06
Def. Pts/Poss. Allowed: 0.84
Overall Plus-Minus: +68
Notes: We have now played 16 conference games, and Reese has been on the court for 329 offensive possessions and 334 defensive possessions. I believe the sample size is now big enough to reach a conclusion: Reese has a demonstrably positive impact on the team when he is on the court. he is effectively leading the team in points per possession scored and fewest points per possession allowed when he is on the court. A good way to look at this are these numbers: Reese is basically playing about 30% of the game in conference play; when he's on the court for that 30% of the time, we are outscoring opponents by 68 points; when he's off the court the other 70% of the time, we're outscoring opponents by 14 points. In other words, if you want to build a lead: put Reese in.

When you break down the data, it's not as simple on Reese's impact, but it does seem to boil down to hustle: on offense, our eFG% is actually slightly lower with him on the court; the difference is we grab 41% of available offensive rebounds (up from 32%) and we get to the free throw line more often. On defense, we guard the 3-point line much better with 3P% reducing from 40.9% to 34% and we only allow 33.1% shooting from inside the arc. We also slightly rebound better on the defensive end.
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Ethan Anderon
Off. Pts/Poss. Scored: 0.97
Def. Pts/Poss. Allowed: 1.01
Overall Plus-Minus: -24
Notes: The final numbers are the most telling to me; that's because they come from a guy who has played over 50% possession in conference play than Reese; and yet this player has the worst on-court offensive numbers other than Kobe and Joshua Morgan, and the very worst on-court defensive numbers. So let's take a look at what's going on.

When Ethan is on the court, the big change in the offense is just crashing 3-point shooting: our 3P% goes from 41% to 26.7%. We also get to the free throw line less and shoot slightly worse. On defense, it's the opposite scenario on 3-point shooting: our opponents 3P% goes from 34.4% to 44.4%! They also offensive rebound slightly better and we just don't turn them over hardly at all.

In the end, the eFG% tells it all: when Ethan is on the court we are being out-eFG% 47.9% to 45.1%; when he's on the bench, we out-eFG% our opponents 53.9% to 43.5%!!

Nice work. Unless you're a total homer, its pretty apparent that Ethan plays terrible defense and our offense stalls when he's in there. He does have some good games but he is basically a ball dominant guard that can't hit a wide open jumper. That's a recipe for a disastrous offense. He gives good effort on defense but he's too small.

For Morgan/Chevez - are their minutes almost completely mutually exclusive. There is almost never a time when *neither* of them are on the court.

Which may explain that stark jump in opponent 2pt% when Goodwin is on the court.

EDIT: Also surprised to see that we turn the ball over less with Peterson. Thought he was responsible for a lot of those.

Not much to add - the numbers speak for themselves. Just want to thank you for this incredibly deep dive. Much appreciated, as always.

Amazing info thanks Chase as always! We can appreciate the gestalt and feel for games but sometimes, numbers don’t lie.