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Tonight's Game in Seattle is VERY Important for NCAA Seeding and Possibly More

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  • Tonight's Game in Seattle is VERY Important for NCAA Seeding and Possibly More

    Later season conference road games are ALWAYS tough. Always. As we have belabored here, they have been tougher for Enfield's teams at USC.

    Tonight is an interesting test of this. For most measures, Washington is the worst team in the conference; because of covid shorting non-conference play, the Huskies only have three wins total; they are ranked #165 in KenPom, which is the lowest ranking for a Pac-12 team since Wazzu and Cal in 2019; and they are being outscored by more than 12 points per game in Pac-12 play.

    On the other hand, it was just two seasons ago that Hopkins' team led by Matisse Thybulle and Jaylen Nowell cruised to the conference regular season title by 3 games, and only one season ago the Huskies had two first round one-and-dones on the roster; the Huskies' roster is still loaded with ostensibly high major talent (as measured by the other programs offering these kids); and it was just a couple weeks ago that the Huskies swept Utah and Colorado (yes, Colorado) at Alaska Airlines Arena.

    According to the broadest composite rankings of USC's performance this season -- the Massey composite rankings and the Bracket Matrix -- USC is currently anywhere from a 5-see to a 3-seed. And, indeed, Joe Lunardi curretly has USC as a 4-seed, as does Andy Katz, though Jerry Palm has SC as a 7-seed.

    If SC wants to have a favorable seeding (say Top 4 or 5), losses going forward are going to happen; but SC has to win a game like this ... on the road ... against a really, really bad team.

    As to the specific matchup, the most glaring matchup in on the boards when USC has the ball. SC is tops in the conference in offensive rebounding; Washington is dead last in defensive rebounding. The numbers, as they stand, would indicate that USC could get somewhere along the lines of 15 extra possessions in the game based on offensive rebounding. That would be nearly impossibly to overcome for Washington.

    If, however, Washington has rebound effectively on the defensive end, the odds get much closer for the Huskies.
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