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Deep Dive into NBA Mock Drafts

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  • Deep Dive into NBA Mock Drafts

    With the season formally coming to an end, the guys who do their mock draft have new ones up. I took a deep dive into the four most prominent mock drafts updated this week (ESPN / DraftExpress's Jonathan Givony, The Athletic's Sam Vecenie, and Jonathan Wasserman of The Bleacher Report), along with the most recent comprehensive player ranking (February 24, 2022) from Jeremy Woo of Sports Illustrated, weighted them according to track record, and put together a list of players based on how high the likelihood is that the players will be drafted.

    Players appearing on all 5 mock drafts and almost 100% certain to be drafted (34) are the following:
    Jabari Smith, Auburn
    Chet Holmgren, Gonzaga
    Paolo Banchero, Duke
    Jaden Ivey, Purdue
    Keegan Murray, Iowa
    Shaedon Sharpe, Kentucky
    Johnny Davis, Wisconsin
    AJ Griffin, Duke
    Bennedict Mathurin, Arizona
    Jalen Duren, Memphis
    Ochai Agbaji, Kansas
    Jeremy Sochan, Baylor
    TyTy Washington Jr., Kentucky
    Mark Williams, Duke
    Dyson Daniels, GL Ignite
    Tari Eason, LSU
    Malaki Branham, Ohio St.
    Blake Wesley, Notre Dame
    MarJon Beauchamp, GL Ignite
    Kendall Brown, Baylor
    E.J. Liddell, Ohio St.
    Jaden Hardy, GL Ignite
    Kennedy Chandler, Tennessee
    Nikola Jovic, Int'l
    Walker Kessler, Auburn
    Patrick Baldwin Jr., UW-Milw.
    Wendell Moore Jr., Duke
    Bryce McGowens, Nebraska
    Christian Koloko, Arizona
    Jean Montero, OT Elite
    JD Davison, Alabama
    Ismael Kamagate, Int'l
    Hugo Besson, NZ Breakers
    Keon Ellis, Alabama
    Players appearing on at least four of the five mock drafts, and having a better than 75% chance to be drafted (16) are the following:
    Ousmane Dieng, NZ Breakers
    Trevor Keels, Duke
    Max Christie, Michigan St.
    Christian Braun, Kansas
    Jalen Williams, Santa Clara
    Justin Lewis, Marquette
    Josh Minott, Memphis
    David Roddy, Colorado St.
    Gabriele Procida, Int'l
    Oscar Tshiebwe, Kentucky
    Matteo Spagnolo, Int'l
    Trevion Williams, Purdue
    Alondes Williams, Wake Forest
    Michael Foster, GL Ignite
    Julian Champagnie, St. John’s
    Jaime Jaquez, UCLA
    So it would appears that about 50 of the 58 draft spots are almost certainly locked up.
    Since there are only 58 draft spots this year, who are the next 8 most likely draft picks? I calculate Jaylin Williams of Arkansas at 70%. As for the next most likely, I calculate these next 8 guys as standing about a 40-55% chance of being drafted:
    Khalifa Diop, Int'l 55%
    Yannick Nzosa, Int'l 55%
    Caleb Love, North Carolina 50%
    Jake LaRavia, Wake Forest 50%
    Orlando Robinson, Fresno St. 40%
    Jabari Walker, Colorado 45%
    Trayce Jackson-Davis, Indiana 40%
    Terquavion Smith, N.C. State 40%

    This takes us through a full draft of 58 players + 1.

    The next group of players (there are about 5 of them, including some big names) is likewise in that 35-40% range of being drafted:
    Harrison Ingram, Stanford 35%
    Peyton Watson, UCLA 35%
    Andrew Nembhard, Gonzaga 35%
    Drew Timme, Gonzaga 40%
    Ron Harper Jr., Rutgers 40%

    This has taken us through the Top 64 players per these mock drafts. After that group, I calculate the odds of remaining potential draft picks to have a much lower change of being drafted. Here are 20 players who have had their name mentioned on at least one of the four most prominent mock drafts, along with the odds I see for them being drafted:
    Dalen Terry, Arizona 25%
    Iverson Molinar, Miss State 20%
    Dominick Barlow, OT Elite 15%
    Jamaree Bouyea, USF 20%
    Kellan Grady, Kentucky 20%
    Caleb Houstan, Michigan 25%
    Julian Strawther, Gonzaga 20%
    Isaiah Mobley, USC 15%
    Ibou Dianko Badji, Int'l 15%
    Ariel Hukporti, Australia 15%
    Brady Manek, North Carolina 15%
    JD Notae, Arkansas 15%
    Armando Bacot, North Carolina 15%
    Johnny Juzang, UCLA 15%
    Jordan Hall, St. Joseph’s 10%
    Kameron McGusty, Miami 10%
    Dereon Seabron, N.C. State 10%
    Taevion Kinsey, Marshall 10%
    Izaiah Brockington, Iowa St. 10%

    Here is a final group of about 9 names who have had their names appear in less-esteemed draft rankings, along with the odds I calculate for them to be drafted:
    Pete Nance, Northwestern
    Zach Edey, Purdue
    Tyler Burton,Richmond
    Matthew Mayer, Baylor
    Moussa Diabate, Michigan
    Jaden Shackelford, Alabama
    Colby Jones, Xavier
    Terrence Shannon Jr, Texas Tech
    Jamarion Sharp, W Kentucky

  • #2
    Thanks as always for the research, Chase.

    I'm a bit surprised Ingram is so low & I think Terry will shoot up this list next year. Also interested to see what happens in Westwood. Juzang's not an NBA player & would be leaving a lot of NIL money on the table if he left, but if Jacquez stays to spend a year on campus with his sister & get the NIL money rumored to be heading to his family in that scenario, they've got a real logjam. If I'm Cronin I'd rather lose Juzang than Watson, but it seems like the opposite is more likely to happen.

    As for Isaiah, I don't think his draft status will change if he comes back, but I also think he'll make more money in college next year than in the G League. Of course, Evan is going to make a few hundred million over the next decade plus, so who knows how much a few hundred grand will affect anything for Isaiah.


    • #3
      Juzang should have left last year. Some NBA team would have taken him after that March Madness performance.