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This is NOT a bad season

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  • #1

    This is NOT a bad season

    With so many calling for Andy Enfield's head while others cry out that he deserves another year after one bad season ... it's important to understand...this is NOT a bad season

    A bad season would of been we made it to the Tourny and lost again in the first round

    A bad season is the team suffers from too many injuries and can never gel...then struggles to make it to the NIT

    Those are bad seasons

    No...this is a disasterous season...a complete meltdown and implosion of our basketball team...an Atomic bomb of bad play, disorganization, lack of teamwork, regression and embarrassment...
    Please, let's stop calling this a bad season..

    We went from finishing the season tied for second last year ...
    To being Dead Last in the Pac 12 with the much trumpeted #1 player and a top #3 recruiting class...along with a returning proven veteran scorer and a once upon a time great defender...

    Ok...so if this season the team chemistry was bad and the injury bug hit hard ...but we saw the coaching staff adjusting on the fly pushing the team to scrape and claw through each game ... If the players battled hard but came up short and ended up a .500 squad missing the Tourny...that's an acceptable bad season...

    But that's NOT what we are seeing.

    This is why there are serious questions to answer and coaching decisions to make in the off season

    I can't believe that just a couple years ago we were celebrating 5 straight wins over UCLA and bragging that Andy Enfield was a better coach than mick Cronin...so much has gone wrong since then
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  • #2
    It's been a dismal run. Sadly.

    This stat really encapsulates that:

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    • #3
      The idea that there is something causal about the contract seems really unlikely. This amount of data would be suggestive of a relationship (causality aside) if the games were independent events, but they are obviously not. There is autocorrelation in the time-series of games across years (good teams and bad!) So it is not much data to support a theory that is, on its face, not very plausible given how much everyone hates losing! As for all the dragging of Enfield, throwing out solid level of success in past years and just focusing on this (incredibly disappointing) season is irrational. Considering all the data, looks to me like Enfield is a B+ coach relative to other majors. If we can get an A coach, and can afford it, great. But acting like he is incompetent seems just fans being fans.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by 92.5 View Post
        The idea that there is something causal about the contract seems really unlikely. This amount of data would be suggestive of a relationship (causality aside) if the games were independent events, but they are obviously not.
        I agree that there is not a huge sample (especially given how much randomness is in this data, injuries etc.) However I think it is a notable point. Simply put, it's worth noticing.

        Winning in basketball is hard, really hard, and even though everyone "hates losing", as a coach you have to be willing to be in the top ~10% of your field annually if you really want to make your fans happy. Of course most coaches would *rather* win a championship than not win one - in a vacuum, but that takes a lot of work, and most coaches are probably just doing enough to keep their job.

        I don't know if Andy has that "edge" where he wants to win more than 95% of power conference coaches do.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by 92.5 View Post
          The idea that there is something causal about the contract seems really unlikely. This amount of data would be suggestive of a relationship (causality aside) if the games were independent events, but they are obviously not. There is autocorrelation in the time-series of games across years (good teams and bad!) So it is not much data to support a theory that is, on its face, not very plausible given how much everyone hates losing! As for all the dragging of Enfield, throwing out solid level of success in past years and just focusing on this (incredibly disappointing) season is irrational. Considering all the data, looks to me like Enfield is a B+ coach relative to other majors. If we can get an A coach, and can afford it, great. But acting like he is incompetent seems just fans being fans.
          I don’t think there is a sample size limitation here. We’re talking about 62 games, which encompasses over 17% of the total games Enfield has coached at USC. As to the point about the lack of independence of the data, the problem with that argument is that future results will likewise have that same connective property.

          As for the argument about past years of success, I would point to the following:

          — Enfield has never won the regular season or conference tournament championship.

          — Each of the past three seasons has been worse than the prior season.

          — Enfield has made it past the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament once.

          — Enfield has finished with a KenPom rating better than #45 exactly once: the Elite 8 team.

          i don’t mean to suggest that Enfield has no accomplishments. But almost all the data indicates that his good seasons produce bubble teams, he had one outlier season with a once in a generation player, and his teams appear to be getting progressively worse.

          On top of that, the future looks bleak, with the best two — and like five of the top seven — players leaving after this season.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Chase in Arizona View Post

            i don’t mean to suggest that Enfield has no accomplishments. But almost all the data indicates that his good seasons produce bubble teams, he had one outlier season with a once in a generation player, and his teams appear to be getting progressively worse.

            On top of that, the future looks bleak, with the best two — and like five of the top seven — players leaving after this season.
            This is a completely fair and rational evaluation of AE at USC. He was handed a steaming pile, has had some bright spots, but overall has not reached the potential SC post-Galen Center is capable of, and the bad news is if he stays he will have to Portal a team together for the B10.

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