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How accurately do 247 Comp Rankings project California recruits?

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  • How accurately do 247 Comp Rankings project California recruits?

    Given the themes of this offseason regarding recruiting, I thought it might be worth it to dive into just how well the fan-site services rank California high school recruits. So here's a little offseason project on that topic.... starting with the Class of 2018 -- which had FIFTY-FOUR (54) ranked 4- and 5- stars from the State of California.


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Name:	2018 247Sports Composite Top 100 Recruits (from CA) Chart.png
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Name:	2018 247Sports Composite Ranked 4 & 5-Stars (from CA) Chart.png
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Name:	2018 247Sports All Composite 4- & 5-Stars (from CA) Chart.png
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          A few key notes here:

          -- There are about 255 (give or take) players taken in the NFL Draft.

          -- For 2018, 247Sports had exactly 247 4- and 5- Stars Ranked in its National Ranking Composite.

          -- So a Nationally Ranked 247Sports recruit is essentially projected to be an NFL Draft pick (at least in 2018).

          -- However of the 35 California high school recruits who were Nationally Ranked 4- and 5- stars in the 247Sports Composite, only 8 were drafted -- a hit rate of only 22.9%.

          -- What's more: Only 15 of the 54 recruits who were rated as 4- or 5- Stars ever made All-Conference at the Power-5 level (a 27.8% hit rate), and only FIVE (5) of them were ever First Team All-Conference -- a woeful 9.3% hit rate.

          -- Perhaps most ominously, 44.4% of all those California 4- & 5- Stars would end up transferring while in college. So the odds of a 4- or 5- Star from the 2018 Class in California transferring were significantly higher than him being selected for All-Conference honors, and were certainly higher than him being drafted. Unfortunately, that also applies as a group to all of the Nationally Ranked 4- and 5- Stars from California in 2018.

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