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With what promises to be one the craziest transfer season ever this coming offseason, not to mention the decisions of seniors whether or not to return, it's far, far too early to make definitive predictions about the conference next season. But here are some observations based on what we know (or at least think we know):
First, the conference should be its strongest top to bottom in quite a long time. Right now, it looks like only two programs will be objectively bad next season: Arizona State and Washington. Keep in mind these programs finishes FIRST and SECOND in the conference with their current coaches just two season ago. But with consecutive last place and second-to-last place finishes the past two seasons, Washington under Mike Hopkins has fallen apart; meanwhile, the 9th place finishing Sun Devils are likely to lose their top four scorers and possibly 5 of their 6; indeed, it's no guarantee Bobby Hurley will be back next season; he certainly hasn't recruited like he intends to be.
Meanwhile, the other bottom finishers in the conference have every reason to expect to be better:
-- Statistically, Cal was the superior team to Washington (despite he weakest talent in the conference) and played several competitive games against good teams. Everyone should be back for Cal and there's good reason to believe the Bears will pick up a good player or two in the transfer market.
-- Washington State will be a very trendy pick to make the NCAA Tournament next year, whether or not Isaac Bonton comes back (he probably won't); the Cougs finished with a winning record and would be going to the NIT in a normal season. Meanwhile, Noah Williams, Efe Abogidi, Dishon Jackson and DJ Rodman (freshmen and sophomores all) will be among the top returning players in the conference.
-- Unless Larry Krystowiak experiences yet another personnel revolt (which he could), Utah should have its best team since the Jakob Poeltl days. Timmy Allen (now at point guard), Ian Martinez and Alfonso Plummer will give the Utes possibly the best backcourt in the conference. Branden Carlson, Pelle Larsson, Mikael Jantunen, and Riley Battin give the Utes a formidable front line.
-- Assuming Ethan Thompson returns for Oregon State, the Beavers are poised for another run at the NCAA Tournament. Jarod Lucas is the best shooter in the conference and Warith Alitishe will be the best returning big man in the conference.
-- Jerod Haase is a bit of an outlier here. While Kyle Smith, Mark Fox, and Larry Krystowiak all have reasons to be optimistic based on their teams' performances down the stretch, Stanford finishes the season as a basket case, losing five in a row; the top player, Oscar Da Silva, is a lock to be gone; upper classmen guards Daejon Davis and Bryce Wills found themselves relegated to the bench, and are likely transfer candidates; and the returning big starter, Lukas Kisunas, was embarrassed in his play down the stretch. But there are things to be hopeful about: Jaiden Delaire looks like he'll turn into an all-conference player; Michael O'Connell has been a find; and the recruiting class, which features Harrison Ingram and Isael Silva, is arguably tops in the conference. After five lackluster seasons at Stanford, it's hard to imagine Jerod Haase suddenly competing for a conference title next season; but one never knows.
-- Assuming the university president doesn't fire him, Sean Miller should have his best team at Arizona since the days of Deandre Ayton and Allonzo Trier. Bennedict Mathurin, assuming he's back, Azuolas Tubelis, James Akinjo, and Jordan Brown form the best core of returning players in the conference. Add to that Dalen Terry, Kerr Kriisa, Christian Koloko and Jemarl Baker, and there's a lot of talent there. Miller also has KJ Simpson and Shane Nowell coming in. The Cats will be tough and a good early bet for conference favorites.
-- The other team with lots of returning firepower is UCLA, which not only will have Tyger Campbell, Jaime Jacquez, Jules Bernard, Johnny Juzang, Jaylen Clark and Mac Ettienne all back, but might also see Chris Smith return, to go along with the best player in California: Peyton Watson. UCLA is probably a transfer or two away from a Top 10 roster.
-- Colorado will be an interesting case. McKinley Wright will almost surely be gone, but other seniors, such as Jeriah Horne, D'Shawn Schwartz, Maddox Daniels, and Dallas Walton, could all reasonably return to join Evan Battey, Jabari Walker, Eli Parquet, and Tristan Da Silva.
-- Oregon will almost certainly lose Chris Duarte, Eugene Omoruyi and LJ Figueroa. Will Richardson is another candidate for early departure. So Dana Altman could be looking at a near-total rebuild around the likes of Eric Williams, Jalen Terry, and Franck Kepnang, with blue chipper Nathan Bittle arriving. Altman hasn't finishes with more than 8 losses in the conference since 2011, and it's unlikely he will start next season.
First, the conference should be its strongest top to bottom in quite a long time. Right now, it looks like only two programs will be objectively bad next season: Arizona State and Washington. Keep in mind these programs finishes FIRST and SECOND in the conference with their current coaches just two season ago. But with consecutive last place and second-to-last place finishes the past two seasons, Washington under Mike Hopkins has fallen apart; meanwhile, the 9th place finishing Sun Devils are likely to lose their top four scorers and possibly 5 of their 6; indeed, it's no guarantee Bobby Hurley will be back next season; he certainly hasn't recruited like he intends to be.
Meanwhile, the other bottom finishers in the conference have every reason to expect to be better:
-- Statistically, Cal was the superior team to Washington (despite he weakest talent in the conference) and played several competitive games against good teams. Everyone should be back for Cal and there's good reason to believe the Bears will pick up a good player or two in the transfer market.
-- Washington State will be a very trendy pick to make the NCAA Tournament next year, whether or not Isaac Bonton comes back (he probably won't); the Cougs finished with a winning record and would be going to the NIT in a normal season. Meanwhile, Noah Williams, Efe Abogidi, Dishon Jackson and DJ Rodman (freshmen and sophomores all) will be among the top returning players in the conference.
-- Unless Larry Krystowiak experiences yet another personnel revolt (which he could), Utah should have its best team since the Jakob Poeltl days. Timmy Allen (now at point guard), Ian Martinez and Alfonso Plummer will give the Utes possibly the best backcourt in the conference. Branden Carlson, Pelle Larsson, Mikael Jantunen, and Riley Battin give the Utes a formidable front line.
-- Assuming Ethan Thompson returns for Oregon State, the Beavers are poised for another run at the NCAA Tournament. Jarod Lucas is the best shooter in the conference and Warith Alitishe will be the best returning big man in the conference.
-- Jerod Haase is a bit of an outlier here. While Kyle Smith, Mark Fox, and Larry Krystowiak all have reasons to be optimistic based on their teams' performances down the stretch, Stanford finishes the season as a basket case, losing five in a row; the top player, Oscar Da Silva, is a lock to be gone; upper classmen guards Daejon Davis and Bryce Wills found themselves relegated to the bench, and are likely transfer candidates; and the returning big starter, Lukas Kisunas, was embarrassed in his play down the stretch. But there are things to be hopeful about: Jaiden Delaire looks like he'll turn into an all-conference player; Michael O'Connell has been a find; and the recruiting class, which features Harrison Ingram and Isael Silva, is arguably tops in the conference. After five lackluster seasons at Stanford, it's hard to imagine Jerod Haase suddenly competing for a conference title next season; but one never knows.
-- Assuming the university president doesn't fire him, Sean Miller should have his best team at Arizona since the days of Deandre Ayton and Allonzo Trier. Bennedict Mathurin, assuming he's back, Azuolas Tubelis, James Akinjo, and Jordan Brown form the best core of returning players in the conference. Add to that Dalen Terry, Kerr Kriisa, Christian Koloko and Jemarl Baker, and there's a lot of talent there. Miller also has KJ Simpson and Shane Nowell coming in. The Cats will be tough and a good early bet for conference favorites.
-- The other team with lots of returning firepower is UCLA, which not only will have Tyger Campbell, Jaime Jacquez, Jules Bernard, Johnny Juzang, Jaylen Clark and Mac Ettienne all back, but might also see Chris Smith return, to go along with the best player in California: Peyton Watson. UCLA is probably a transfer or two away from a Top 10 roster.
-- Colorado will be an interesting case. McKinley Wright will almost surely be gone, but other seniors, such as Jeriah Horne, D'Shawn Schwartz, Maddox Daniels, and Dallas Walton, could all reasonably return to join Evan Battey, Jabari Walker, Eli Parquet, and Tristan Da Silva.
-- Oregon will almost certainly lose Chris Duarte, Eugene Omoruyi and LJ Figueroa. Will Richardson is another candidate for early departure. So Dana Altman could be looking at a near-total rebuild around the likes of Eric Williams, Jalen Terry, and Franck Kepnang, with blue chipper Nathan Bittle arriving. Altman hasn't finishes with more than 8 losses in the conference since 2011, and it's unlikely he will start next season.