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Comprehensive Look at USC's On-Court / Off-Court Plus-Minus for High Major Opponents

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  • Comprehensive Look at USC's On-Court / Off-Court Plus-Minus for High Major Opponents

    This data includes all games (including conference tournament games) against Pac-12 opponents, plus the games against BYU and UConn; no other games are included.

    First, below is the raw data from HoopLens.

    -- Note that "PPP" = "points per possession," in other words, the number of points USC scored per possession when this player was in the game or on the bench.

    -- Thus, the first data column "PPP Diff v. Opp." reflects the individual player's on-court / off-court plus-minus for the reason on a per possession basis.

    -- "On-Court Off PPP" and "On-Court Def PPP" reflects how many points USC scored or USC gave up while the player was on the court.

    -- "Adj On-Court" or "Adjusted On-Court" is the differential in points per possession when the player is not in the game. Thus, for example, when Max Agbonkpolo is in the game, USC scores -0.02 points (or 0.02 points less) per possession than when he is not in the game.

    Here is the raw data for the rotation players, by alphabetical order.
    Player Pts/Poss (PPP) Diff vs. Opp. On-Court Off-PPP Adj On-Court Off-PPP On-Court Def-PPP Adj On-Court Def-PPP Adjusted On-Court PPP On-Court Off. Poss. On-Court Def. Poss.
    Max Agbonkpolo +0.073 1.03 -0.02 0.96 -0.04 -0.06 684 684
    Ethan Anderson +0.096 1.04 -0.01 0.95 -0.03 -0.04 759 758
    Noah Baumann +0.067 1.03 -0.02 0.97 -0.05 -0.07 464 461
    Tahj Eaddy +0.163 1.06 +0.07 0.90 +0.16 0.23 1440 1423
    Chevez Goodwin +0.058 1.04 -0.01 0.98 -0.07 -0.08 675 684
    Evan Mobley +0.126 1.03 -0.08 0.90 +0.16 0.08 1480 1472
    Isaiah Mobley +0.128 1.07 +0.06 0.94 -0.02 0.04 1172 1170
    Drew Peterson +0.123 1.05 +0.01 0.93 +0.02 0.03 1288 1277
    Isaiah White +0.093 1.06 +0.03 0.97 -0.07 -0.04 897 891
    Right away, you will see some surprises. For example, for whatever reason, USC scores 0.08 points less per possession when Evan is on the court, versus when he is off. Now, Evan more than makes up for this with his +.16 points per possession difference on defense; but it's an odd stat.

    Similarly, Tahj Eaddy's +.16 points per possession difference on defense is very surprising. Evan and Tahj were the only two rotational players with a substantial positive Adjusted On-Court Defensive PPP.

    Finally, a few surprising trends that were burst by the end of the season: Max Agbonkpolo, who had put up a surprising Adjusted On-Court Offensive PPP, actually finished negative for the season: SC scored 1.03 points per possession when Max was on the court, vs. 1.05 when he was off; Max was similarly -.04 PPP differential on defense. Chevez Goodwin had the worst Adjusted Defensive PPP for regular rotation players; this is no surprising considering that Chevez is often in the game when Evan is on the bench, and Chevez is not a particularly strong defensive player. Finally, Isaiah Mobley continued to shine as a surprisingly effective presence on offense, posing a +.06 Adjusted On-Court Offensive PPP.

    By the numbers, here's a look at the players who had the most positive impact on offense when they were on the court:

    Player On-Court Off-PPP Adj On-Court Off-PPP
    Tahj Eaddy 1.06 +0.07
    Isaiah Mobley 1.07 +0.06
    Isaiah White 1.06 +0.03
    Drew Peterson 1.05 +0.01
    Obviously, Tahj is no surprise; but Isaiah Mobley is. Drew is possibly a surprise for having such a modest adjusted impact; that could be, however, because he was on the court so often.


    Now let's look at the players who had the most positive impact on defense when they were on the court:
    Player On-Court Def-PPP Adj On-Court Def-PPP
    Tahj Eaddy 0.90 +0.16
    Evan Mobley 0.90 +0.16
    Drew Peterson 0.93 +0.02
    Isaiah Mobley 0.94 -0.02
    Both Tahj and Evan allowed just 0.90 points per possession when they were on the court, which is +.16. Drew's presence also had a marginally positive impact on points surrendered at +.02 per possession.

    When it comes to overall positive impact from being on the court, it's the same four players: Tahj, Evan, Isaiah M and Drew:
    Player PPP Differential Adjusted On-Court PPP
    Tahj Eaddy +0.163 +0.23
    Evan Mobley +0.126 +0.08
    Isaiah Mobley +0.128 +0.04
    Drew Peterson +0.123 +0.03



  • #2
    Originally posted by Chase (Gone from NYC) View Post
    This data includes all games (including conference tournament games) against Pac-12 opponents, plus the games against BYU and UConn; no other games are included.

    First, below is the raw data from HoopLens.

    -- Note that "PPP" = "points per possession," in other words, the number of points USC scored per possession when this player was in the game or on the bench.

    -- Thus, the first data column "PPP Diff v. Opp." reflects the individual player's on-court / off-court plus-minus for the reason on a per possession basis.

    -- "On-Court Off PPP" and "On-Court Def PPP" reflects how many points USC scored or USC gave up while the player was on the court.

    -- "Adj On-Court" or "Adjusted On-Court" is the differential in points per possession when the player is not in the game. Thus, for example, when Max Agbonkpolo is in the game, USC scores -0.02 points (or 0.02 points less) per possession than when he is not in the game.

    Here is the raw data for the rotation players, by alphabetical order.
    Player Pts/Poss (PPP) Diff vs. Opp. On-Court Off-PPP Adj On-Court Off-PPP On-Court Def-PPP Adj On-Court Def-PPP Adjusted On-Court PPP On-Court Off. Poss. On-Court Def. Poss.
    Max Agbonkpolo +0.073 1.03 -0.02 0.96 -0.04 -0.06 684 684
    Ethan Anderson +0.096 1.04 -0.01 0.95 -0.03 -0.04 759 758
    Noah Baumann +0.067 1.03 -0.02 0.97 -0.05 -0.07 464 461
    Tahj Eaddy +0.163 1.06 +0.07 0.90 +0.16 0.23 1440 1423
    Chevez Goodwin +0.058 1.04 -0.01 0.98 -0.07 -0.08 675 684
    Evan Mobley +0.126 1.03 -0.08 0.90 +0.16 0.08 1480 1472
    Isaiah Mobley +0.128 1.07 +0.06 0.94 -0.02 0.04 1172 1170
    Drew Peterson +0.123 1.05 +0.01 0.93 +0.02 0.03 1288 1277
    Isaiah White +0.093 1.06 +0.03 0.97 -0.07 -0.04 897 891
    Right away, you will see some surprises. For example, for whatever reason, USC scores 0.08 points less per possession when Evan is on the court, versus when he is off. Now, Evan more than makes up for this with his +.16 points per possession difference on defense; but it's an odd stat.

    Similarly, Tahj Eaddy's +.16 points per possession difference on defense is very surprising. Evan and Tahj were the only two rotational players with a substantial positive Adjusted On-Court Defensive PPP.

    Finally, a few surprising trends that were burst by the end of the season: Max Agbonkpolo, who had put up a surprising Adjusted On-Court Offensive PPP, actually finished negative for the season: SC scored 1.03 points per possession when Max was on the court, vs. 1.05 when he was off; Max was similarly -.04 PPP differential on defense. Chevez Goodwin had the worst Adjusted Defensive PPP for regular rotation players; this is no surprising considering that Chevez is often in the game when Evan is on the bench, and Chevez is not a particularly strong defensive player. Finally, Isaiah Mobley continued to shine as a surprisingly effective presence on offense, posing a +.06 Adjusted On-Court Offensive PPP.

    By the numbers, here's a look at the players who had the most positive impact on offense when they were on the court:

    Player On-Court Off-PPP Adj On-Court Off-PPP
    Tahj Eaddy 1.06 +0.07
    Isaiah Mobley 1.07 +0.06
    Isaiah White 1.06 +0.03
    Drew Peterson 1.05 +0.01
    Obviously, Tahj is no surprise; but Isaiah Mobley is. Drew is possibly a surprise for having such a modest adjusted impact; that could be, however, because he was on the court so often.


    Now let's look at the players who had the most positive impact on defense when they were on the court:
    Player On-Court Def-PPP Adj On-Court Def-PPP
    Tahj Eaddy 0.90 +0.16
    Evan Mobley 0.90 +0.16
    Drew Peterson 0.93 +0.02
    Isaiah Mobley 0.94 -0.02
    Both Tahj and Evan allowed just 0.90 points per possession when they were on the court, which is +.16. Drew's presence also had a marginally positive impact on points surrendered at +.02 per possession.

    When it comes to overall positive impact from being on the court, it's the same four players: Tahj, Evan, Isaiah M and Drew:
    Player PPP Differential Adjusted On-Court PPP
    Tahj Eaddy +0.163 +0.23
    Evan Mobley +0.126 +0.08
    Isaiah Mobley +0.128 +0.04
    Drew Peterson +0.123 +0.03

    Great stuff, Chase. I'm surprised Anderson's on off numbers aren't worse given how bad he's looked this year

    Comment


    • #3
      Thanks, 2016. Loved your post about point guards. I do think it’s a pretty important issue. I’d go nuts for a kid like Ty Jerome, who I think meets your criteria for a point guard.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Chase (Gone from NYC) View Post
        Thanks, 2016. Loved your post about point guards. I do think it’s a pretty important issue. I’d go nuts for a kid like Ty Jerome, who I think meets your criteria for a point guard.
        Appreciate that, Chase. Jerome was a terrific college guard. The guy that immediately comes to mind is Scotty Pippen Jr. if he decides to transfer home. I'm not sure any of these 2022 kids can be that guy, but we'll see how Trimble's shot continues to develop

        Comment

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