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More Interesting Data from HoopLens: Points Above Median

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  • More Interesting Data from HoopLens: Points Above Median

    Some fascinating data from the indispensable HoopsLens:

    "Points above median" (PAM) is a simple way to understand how much each player affects his team's shooting efficiency. PAM calculates how many additional points a player scores when compared with what a "median" player would have scored with those shot attempts. Thus, players with large positive PAM values increase their team's offensive efficiency more than players with small or negative PAM values. PAM can be used to help determine what players, and what sorts of shots, are critical to a team's success. When scouting a team, players and shots that produce high PAM values indicate the things that a team does most efficiently.

    The formula for PAM is as follows: PAM = Points – 2 x 0.48 x (FGA + 0.475 x FTA)

    The top "points above median" (PAM) player on USC is, not surprisingly, Evan Mobley. Evan has a PAM score of 98.4. Tahj, again not surprisingly, is second at 59.5. For comparison, Bennedict Mathurin is 66.7; James Akinjo is 30.2; Remy Martin is 54.8; Alonzo Verge is 11.2; Matt Bradley is 68.1; McKinley Wright and Jeriah Horne are 74.1 and 73.0, respectively; Johnny Juzang is 28.4; and Chris Duarte is a whopping 106.5.

    I'll get into this more in later posts, but HoopLens also measures PAM by where a player shoots the ball. For example, Evan's PAM is 44.2 when he is at the rim, not in transition, but negative when he is taking a 2-point jumper. Tahj has far and away the best PAM on SC from behind the arc at 25.6.

    A few notes:

    The PAM scores for both Ethan and Max are negative: -5.0 and -7.6, respectively. That's not good. Between the other top four teams in the conference (Oregon, Colorado, UCLA and Arizona), there was only ONE rotation player who had a negative PAM score: Amauri Hardy (the UNLV transfer) for Oregon at -2.5. That's it. One between those four teams, and two for USC. Ethan's points above median when taking a 2-point jumper is -13.3; Max's points above median when shooting a 3 is -14.0. Bottom line on those two: Ethan should only be shooting open 3-pointers and should never ever ever be taking a mid-range 2-pointer; Max should only be looking to score at the rim.

    SC's starters (plus Goodwin) are all good at the rim, whether in transition or in half court play, other than Drew in non-transition. Isaiah Mobley is strong at the rim, except in the cases of offensive rebounds. In general, SC players pretty much stink at mid-range jumpers; the exception is Tahj; the extreme case is Isaiah M., who should apparently NEVER be taking 2-point jumpers.

    A note on Noah Baumann: Baumann's PAM on 3-point shots is barely above zero: +0.2 -- meaning he's no different that a median 3-point shooter. Noah is also a negative at the free throw line. Where Noah is decidedly above average is in mid-range jumpers: +7.7.

  • #2
    Great post -- but one (maybe stupid) question. How are only three Pac 12 rotation players in the negative? I'm trying to think about this like OPS+ in baseball where average is set at 100. Here if 0 is the median, wouldn't we expect about half (adjusting for how median is different from mean) to be below zero?

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    • #3
      Originally posted by CharlieParker View Post
      Great post -- but one (maybe stupid) question. How are only three Pac 12 rotation players in the negative? I'm trying to think about this like OPS+ in baseball where average is set at 100. Here if 0 is the median, wouldn't we expect about half (adjusting for how median is different from mean) to be below zero?
      Charlie, 3 rotational players on the top five Pac-12 teams.

      I think the way to look at 0 is that it’s the median player in ALL of college hoops, not just for high majors.

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