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Updated WAY TOO EARLY Look at the Pac-12 Next Season

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  • Updated WAY TOO EARLY Look at the Pac-12 Next Season

    A month ago, I published a Quick WAY TOO EARLY Look at the Pac-12 Next Season.

    Despite the clear admonishments littering that posts that "it's far, far too early to make definitive predictions about the conference next season," and the post was merely "some observations based on what we know (or at least think we know)," the post still received criticism.

    Now, four weeks later, we do know a lot more, but certainly not everything (or even close to everything), about what personnel (or, in the case of Arizona, even coaching) situations will be for next season. Here's an update on where things are:

    Arizona: from March 15: "Assuming the university president doesn't fire him, Sean Miller should have his best team at Arizona since the days of Deandre Ayton and Allonzo Trier. Bennedict Mathurin, assuming he's back, Azuolas Tubelis, James Akinjo, and Jordan Brown form the best core of returning players in the conference. Add to that Dalen Terry, Kerr Kriisa, Christian Koloko and Jemarl Baker, and there's a lot of talent there. Miller also has KJ Simpson and Shane Nowell coming in. The Cats will be tough and a good early bet for conference favorites." Update: So Arizona done up and fired Sean Miller after all. We'll see how this turns out, but it's a shet shot so far. In short, we have no idea who will or won't be back for the Cats next season, just as (as of this moment) we don't know who the coach will be.

    Arizona State: from March 15: "[T]he 9th place finishing Sun Devils are likely to lose their top four scorers and possibly 5 of their 6; indeed, it's no guarantee Bobby Hurley will be back next season; he certainly hasn't recruited like he intends to be." Update: Remy Martin, Josh Christopher, Marcus Bagley, Alonzo Verge, Taeshon Cherry, Jaelen House, and Chris Osten are all leaving the program. This seemed like a disaster in the making on the heels of a really bad recruiting class on paper. Then, out of nowhere, Bobby Hurley brought in a trifecta of high profile transfers: Toledo PG Marreon Jackson; Robert Morris SG Jay Heath; and BC Wing AJ Bramah. And just like that, the Sun Devils had rebuilt their backcourt. The cherry on top was not Taeshon Cherry, but Kimani Lawrence announcing his return for a "Super" Senior season. Lawrence will man the front line with Jalen Graham and William Felton, while Luther Muhammad will bolster the backcourt. This might not be a Final Four contender on paper, but the Sun Devils suddenly look respectable.

  • #2
    Cal: from March 15: "Statistically, Cal was the superior team to Washington (despite he weakest talent in the conference) and played several competitive games against good teams. Everyone should be back for Cal and there's good reason to believe the Bears will pick up a good player or two in the transfer market." UPDATE: The Bears best player, Matt Bradley, has transferred to San Diego State.

    Colorado: from March 15: "Colorado will be an interesting case. McKinley Wright will almost surely be gone, but other seniors, such as Jeriah Horne, D'Shawn Schwartz, Maddox Daniels, and Dallas Walton, could all reasonably return to join Evan Battey, Jabari Walker, Eli Parquet, and Tristan Da Silva." UPDATE: Jeriah Horne, D'Shawn Schwartz and Dallas Walton have all left the program, along with McKinley Wright. The original explanation given for Horne and Schwartz leaving is that Boyle wanted to give his incoming freshmen an opportunity to develop. However, Colorado now appears to be targeting transfers of their own.

    Oregon: from March 15: "Oregon will almost certainly lose Chris Duarte, Eugene Omoruyi and LJ Figueroa. Will Richardson is another candidate for early departure. So Dana Altman could be looking at a near-total rebuild around the likes of Eric Williams, Jalen Terry, and Franck Kepnang, with blue chipper Nathan Bittle arriving. Altman hasn't finishes with more than 8 losses in the conference since 2011, and it's unlikely he will start next season." UPDATE: As I wrote about Oregon earlier this week, "Dana Altman has lost his head recruiter in Dana Stubblefield, who got the head coaching job at DePaul. As of now, the Ducks are losing Chris Duarte, Eugene Omoruyi and Amauri Hardy; freshman blue-chip recruit Jalen Terry has announced he's transferring, which implies that Will Richardson will stick around another season at point guard. Super-Senior candidate LJ Figueroa is still enrolled in school and may return next season; but reserve Chandler Lawson is moving on. That means Altman will start with a core group of Will Richardson (probably), LJ Figueroa (possibly), Eric Williams, Frank Kepnang and N'Faly Dante, along with 5-Star recruit Nathan Bittle. That's not a shabby foundation from which to build; and Altman, for sure, will build through the transfer market. Indeed, he is likely to target several of the guys SC is looking at: Boogie Ellis, Timmy Allen, Matt Bradley, Bryce Hamilton."

    Oregon State: from March 15: "Assuming Ethan Thompson returns for Oregon State, the Beavers are poised for another run at the NCAA Tournament. Jarod Lucas is the best shooter in the conference and Warith Alitishe will be the best returning big man in the conference." UPDATE: So on March 15, I did not anticipate the Beavers making a run to the Elite Eight. One would think that a run like this might propel Ethan Thompson and Warith Alitishe into the NBA Draft; but it's been very quiet up on Covallis, other than Wayne Tinkle getting a raise and an extension.

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    • #3
      Stanford: from March 15: "Jerod Haase is a bit of an outlier here. .... Stanford finishes the season as a basket case, losing five in a row; the top player, Oscar Da Silva, is a lock to be gone; upper classmen guards Daejon Davis and Bryce Wills found themselves relegated to the bench, and are likely transfer candidates; and the returning big starter, Lukas Kisunas, was embarrassed in his play down the stretch. But there are things to be hopeful about: Jaiden Delaire looks like he'll turn into an all-conference player; Michael O'Connell has been a find; and the recruiting class, which features Harrison Ingram and Isael Silva, is arguably tops in the conference. After five lackluster seasons at Stanford, it's hard to imagine Jerod Haase suddenly competing for a conference title next season; but one never knows." UPDATE: As expected, Oscar Da Silva has turned pro and Daejon Davis has announced he will transfer. Oh, Ziaire Williams will be gone too.

      UCLA: From March 15: "UCLA [will] not only will have Tyger Campbell, Jaime Jacquez, Jules Bernard, Johnny Juzang, Jaylen Clark and Mac Ettienne all back, but might also see Chris Smith return, to go along with the best player in California: Peyton Watson. UCLA is probably a transfer or two away from a Top 10 roster." UPDATE: UCLA's shocking run to the Final Four has made the Bruins a trendy pick for preseason No. 1. That run was largely dependent on Johnny Juzang, who is now projected as a First Round Pick. The latest scuttlebutt has Cody Riley possibly returning and UCLA possibly adding Rutgers transfer Myles Johnson and former Arizona signee KJ Simpson.

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      • #4
        Utah: Oh Boy!! from March 15: "Unless Larry Krystowiak experiences yet another personnel revolt (which he could), Utah should have its best team since the Jakob Poeltl days. Timmy Allen (now at point guard), Ian Martinez and Alfonso Plummer will give the Utes possibly the best backcourt in the conference. Branden Carlson, Pelle Larsson, Mikael Jantunen, and Riley Battin give the Utes a formidable front line." UPDATE: This time it wasn't a personnel revolt, it was an administration revolt; the Pac-12's Coach K was fired. Fire despite five seasons in a (2014-2019) of winning 11 or more conference games every season. Fired despite producing 3 of the top 5 Utes seasons of the millennium. With that termination came a mass exodus: Timmy Allen, Ian Martinez and Alfonso Plummer have all entered the transfer portal, while Mikael Jantunen is looking to return to Europe. It will be a very different Utes team under Craig Smith next season.

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        • #5
          Washington: from March 15: "[W]ith consecutive last place and second-to-last place finishes the past two seasons, Washington under Mike Hopkins has fallen apart[.]" UPDATE: Six of the Huskies 11 most used players (most minutes) -- Erik Stevenson, Hameir Wright, Marcus Tsohonis, Nate Pryor, RaeQuan Battle and J'Raan Brooks -- have entered the transfer portal -- while leading scorer Quade Green is likely to explore professional options. That leaves Jamal Bey, Cole Bajema and Riley Sorn as top returning players. The Huskies have already added two-time transfer Terrell Brown as a transfer, and Stanford's Daejon Davis, who recently announced a transfer is a likely target for Hopkins. Washington has several other transfer targets.

          Washington State: from March 15: "Washington State will be a very trendy pick to make the NCAA Tournament next year, whether or not Isaac Bonton comes back (he probably won't); the Cougs finished with a winning record and would be going to the NIT in a normal season. Meanwhile, Noah Williams, Efe Abogidi, Dishon Jackson and DJ Rodman (freshmen and sophomores all) will be among the top returning players in the conference." UPDATE: After the Pac-12's run through the NCAA Tournment, the computer ratings on most conference teams shot up; Wazzu finished with a KenPom ranking of No. 78 (enough it finished its playing season outside the Top 100). The Cougs could have every rotation player back other than Isaac Bonton (who is likely to turn pro) and Aljaž Kunc (who transferred to Iowa State), and have added Michael Flowers (formerly of South Alabama and Western Michigan) as Bonton's replacement in the backcourt. Kyle Smith has his guys right on track.

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