Originally posted 02-01-21, 02:05 AM
I was recently pointed to an argument made on a USC message board, clearly directed at me, that Enfield's road record in February is some type of deceptive stat that is being misused and should be ignored; Dana Altman's recent record on the road in February is cited as primary support. Much like the argument that Tad Boyle (never better than 10-8 since 2012) losing to Washington earlier this season is somehow proof that I was wrong about Enfield's teams not being consistent Top 25 caliber and basically evergreen bubble teams, I think this argument misses the mark.
First, for the sake of completeness (as I will explain below), conference road games played in the month (really, the first week) of March should be counted in the equation. Enfield is 1-4 in those games -- but his teams have only played two of them since 2015.
Enfield's overall record in February road games is 6-23. A preliminary argument made against this record is that it includes Enfield's first two seasons, when he inherited a total mess from Kevin O'Neill. I completely support granting Enfield a mulligan for those two seasons (even if for the sake of argument), and will exclude those from this analysis. Thus ...
In the five seasons following those first two, Andy Enfield is 6-16 on the road in February. The thrust of the argument against paying heed to this statistic is Dana Altman's record over those same seasons -- which is 5-13. It's further argued that Andy Enfield is 6-13 over the last four seasons, while Altman is 5-11. (By the way, I agree that Dana Altman is the best head coach in the conference.)
Right away, there is a bit of an oddity in comparing these numbers, as it would seem that USC is playing more games than Oregon. But we know that's not the case. What is really going on is that Oregon has played more road games in the first week of March, which is the final week of the season (7 over the last 5 years, and 5 over the last 4 seasons), than USC has (only two the last five seasons, both in 2019).
Once you include those games from the first week of March, well, then the numbers look different.
Andy Enfield is 6-18 the last five seasons, and 6-14 the last four.
Dana Altman is 11-14 the last five seasons, and 9-12 the last four.
But for the sake of evenness, let's just look at each of their respective records the last five and four seasons in road games for the second half of conference play:
During the second half of conference play, Andy Enfield is 5-18 on the road the last give seasons, and 5-14 the last four.
During the second half of conference play, Dana Altman is 10-13 on the road the last give seasons, and 8-11 the last four.
Similar results.
All of this could be for naught, and Enfield may win 5 or 6 of the remaining road games. That can definitely happen.
But the argument that Enfield's February road record doesn't matter, because "look at Dana Altman's record," doesn't quite work the same when you realize that Altman has 5 more road wins in February & March (or the second half of the conference season) over the last five seasons, and 3 more the last four seasons.
Probably also worth mentioning that Dana Altman only lost a grand total of four conference home games over those five seasons, which is less than half as many as Enfield has. So, for Altman, winning road games in February and March hasn't been quite as vital.
I was recently pointed to an argument made on a USC message board, clearly directed at me, that Enfield's road record in February is some type of deceptive stat that is being misused and should be ignored; Dana Altman's recent record on the road in February is cited as primary support. Much like the argument that Tad Boyle (never better than 10-8 since 2012) losing to Washington earlier this season is somehow proof that I was wrong about Enfield's teams not being consistent Top 25 caliber and basically evergreen bubble teams, I think this argument misses the mark.
First, for the sake of completeness (as I will explain below), conference road games played in the month (really, the first week) of March should be counted in the equation. Enfield is 1-4 in those games -- but his teams have only played two of them since 2015.
Enfield's overall record in February road games is 6-23. A preliminary argument made against this record is that it includes Enfield's first two seasons, when he inherited a total mess from Kevin O'Neill. I completely support granting Enfield a mulligan for those two seasons (even if for the sake of argument), and will exclude those from this analysis. Thus ...
In the five seasons following those first two, Andy Enfield is 6-16 on the road in February. The thrust of the argument against paying heed to this statistic is Dana Altman's record over those same seasons -- which is 5-13. It's further argued that Andy Enfield is 6-13 over the last four seasons, while Altman is 5-11. (By the way, I agree that Dana Altman is the best head coach in the conference.)
Right away, there is a bit of an oddity in comparing these numbers, as it would seem that USC is playing more games than Oregon. But we know that's not the case. What is really going on is that Oregon has played more road games in the first week of March, which is the final week of the season (7 over the last 5 years, and 5 over the last 4 seasons), than USC has (only two the last five seasons, both in 2019).
Once you include those games from the first week of March, well, then the numbers look different.
Andy Enfield is 6-18 the last five seasons, and 6-14 the last four.
Dana Altman is 11-14 the last five seasons, and 9-12 the last four.
But for the sake of evenness, let's just look at each of their respective records the last five and four seasons in road games for the second half of conference play:
During the second half of conference play, Andy Enfield is 5-18 on the road the last give seasons, and 5-14 the last four.
During the second half of conference play, Dana Altman is 10-13 on the road the last give seasons, and 8-11 the last four.
Similar results.
All of this could be for naught, and Enfield may win 5 or 6 of the remaining road games. That can definitely happen.
But the argument that Enfield's February road record doesn't matter, because "look at Dana Altman's record," doesn't quite work the same when you realize that Altman has 5 more road wins in February & March (or the second half of the conference season) over the last five seasons, and 3 more the last four seasons.
Probably also worth mentioning that Dana Altman only lost a grand total of four conference home games over those five seasons, which is less than half as many as Enfield has. So, for Altman, winning road games in February and March hasn't been quite as vital.
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