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  • Not out of the woods yet on making the NCAA Tournament

    Here's where we are on the Tournament.

    Playing Cal, even if you win by 100, is going to hurt your RPI. We dropped a couple spots and are now at #41 nationally. We're #48 in Pomeroy and #41 in Sagarin. Obviously, none of this is ideal. Lunardi continues to have us as a #10 seed and one of the last four with byes at the moment.

    What this all means is that we have to keep playing well. We have 8 regular season games, plus the conference tournament. Unless we really poop the bed to close out the regular season, we aren't very likely to play more than one more game against a team with a sub-100 RPI; that team is Oregon State, and we will play them at home.

    The other 7 games are two games vs. UCLA (RPI #68), Arizona (RIP #14), ASU (RPI #42), Utah (RPI #49), Colorado (RPI #63) and Oregon (RPI #82), and then a conference tournament game, most likely against ASU, Stanford (RIP #94) or Oregon, which if we win we will likely play Arizona or UCLA.

    So how many more games do we need to win?

    If we can win 6 more games between the regular season and conference tournament, I think we are safely in with a bye, but probably no better than a #9 seed.

    If we only win 5 more games, that would put us at 10 losses with an iffy schedule, leaving us as a true bubble team at best.

    If we only win 4 more games, we're almost certainly out of the Tournament.

    Pomeroy currently has us winning 4 more regular season games. So, according to his projection, we'd have to also win games in the conference tournament to make it.

  • #2
    If we go 5-3 in the remaining 8, that puts us at 9 losses, not 10.

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    • #3
      Originally posted by MeltonNotHelton View Post
      If we go 5-3 in the remaining 8, that puts us at 9 losses, not 10.
      You forgot to count the loss in the conference tournament. That would be the 10th loss.

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      • #4
        Roxy Cottin ... So are you saying the season is not over 😅. I got love for you ✌. For sure we have a better chance of making the tourney now than 2-3 weeks ago. We've won 11-13, and 6 straight games. But I agree with you, we need to keep winning to make the tourney.

        Let us keep believing and supporting our team. Fight On!

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        • #5
          5-3 + 1 win in the conference tournament and we'd be comfortably in. Anything less and we'll be sweating.

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          • #6
            Let's beat the bRuins!

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Roxy Cottin View Post


              If we can win 6 more games between the regular season and conference tournament, I think we are safely in with a bye, but probably no better than a #9 seed.

              I'd rather be a 10-seed.

              With this team, I could see us only winning 4 more games, I could also see us getting 9, 8 or 7 more wins.

              Out of curiosity - if we win out or go 9-1, what is seed ceiling?

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              • swamdog
                swamdog commented
                Editing a comment
                I'll take a stab at that. Let's say the one loss was at Colorado or Utah. That would give us quality wins against UCLA(2)/ASU/Arizona & either Utah/Col. 4 of those on the road. Road victories are "HUGE" especially against RPI Top 75. Also in play would be our injuries. Even the Melton situation could come into play a small amount. So at 9-1 I would say we would have a chance at a 4 seed. If the loss was to Arizona maybe a 5 seed.

            • #8
              Originally posted by Roxy Cottin View Post
              Here's where we are on the Tournament.

              Playing Cal, even if you win by 100, is going to hurt your RPI. We dropped a couple spots and are now at #41 nationally. We're #48 in Pomeroy and #41 in Sagarin. Obviously, none of this is ideal. Lunardi continues to have us as a #10 seed and one of the last four with byes at the moment.

              What this all means is that we have to keep playing well. We have 8 regular season games, plus the conference tournament. Unless we really poop the bed to close out the regular season, we aren't very likely to play more than one more game against a team with a sub-100 RPI; that team is Oregon State, and we will play them at home.

              The other 7 games are two games vs. UCLA (RPI #68), Arizona (RIP #14), ASU (RPI #42), Utah (RPI #49), Colorado (RPI #63) and Oregon (RPI #82), and then a conference tournament game, most likely against ASU, Stanford (RIP #94) or Oregon, which if we win we will likely play Arizona or UCLA.

              So how many more games do we need to win?

              If we can win 6 more games between the regular season and conference tournament, I think we are safely in with a bye, but probably no better than a #9 seed.

              If we only win 5 more games, that would put us at 10 losses with an iffy schedule, leaving us as a true bubble team at best.

              If we only win 4 more games, we're almost certainly out of the Tournament.

              Pomeroy currently has us winning 4 more regular season games. So, according to his projection, we'd have to also win games in the conference tournament to make it.
              Probably worth noting that we haven’t won a game since I posted this. We have six regular season and then the conference tournament games left.

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