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With the season formally coming to an end, the guys who do their mock draft have new ones up. I took a deep dive into the four most prominent mock drafts updated this week (ESPN / DraftExpress's Jonathan Givony, The Athletic's Sam Vecenie, NBADraft.net and Jonathan Wasserman of The Bleacher Report), along with the most recent comprehensive player ranking (February 24, 2022) from Jeremy Woo of Sports Illustrated, weighted them according to track record, and put together a list of players based on how high the likelihood is that the players will be drafted.
Players appearing on all 5 mock drafts and almost 100% certain to be drafted (34) are the following:
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Players appearing on at least four of the five mock drafts, and having a better than 75% chance to be drafted (16) are the following:
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So it would appears that about 50 of the 58 draft spots are almost certainly locked up.
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Since there are only 58 draft spots this year, who are the next 8 most likely draft picks? I calculate Jaylin Williams of Arkansas at 70%. As for the next most likely, I calculate these next 8 guys as standing about a 40-55% chance of being drafted:
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This takes us through a full draft of 58 players + 1.
The next group of players (there are about 5 of them, including some big names) is likewise in that 35-40% range of being drafted:
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This has taken us through the Top 64 players per these mock drafts. After that group, I calculate the odds of remaining potential draft picks to have a much lower change of being drafted. Here are 20 players who have had their name mentioned on at least one of the four most prominent mock drafts, along with the odds I see for them being drafted:
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Here is a final group of about 9 names who have had their names appear in less-esteemed draft rankings, along with the odds I calculate for them to be drafted:
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Players appearing on all 5 mock drafts and almost 100% certain to be drafted (34) are the following:
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| Jabari Smith, Auburn |
| Chet Holmgren, Gonzaga |
| Paolo Banchero, Duke |
| Jaden Ivey, Purdue |
| Keegan Murray, Iowa |
| Shaedon Sharpe, Kentucky |
| Johnny Davis, Wisconsin |
| AJ Griffin, Duke |
| Bennedict Mathurin, Arizona |
| Jalen Duren, Memphis |
| Ochai Agbaji, Kansas |
| Jeremy Sochan, Baylor |
| TyTy Washington Jr., Kentucky |
| Mark Williams, Duke |
| Dyson Daniels, GL Ignite |
| Tari Eason, LSU |
| Malaki Branham, Ohio St. |
| Blake Wesley, Notre Dame |
| MarJon Beauchamp, GL Ignite |
| Kendall Brown, Baylor |
| E.J. Liddell, Ohio St. |
| Jaden Hardy, GL Ignite |
| Kennedy Chandler, Tennessee |
| Nikola Jovic, Int'l |
| Walker Kessler, Auburn |
| Patrick Baldwin Jr., UW-Milw. |
| Wendell Moore Jr., Duke |
| Bryce McGowens, Nebraska |
| Christian Koloko, Arizona |
| Jean Montero, OT Elite |
| JD Davison, Alabama |
| Ismael Kamagate, Int'l |
| Hugo Besson, NZ Breakers |
| Keon Ellis, Alabama |
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Players appearing on at least four of the five mock drafts, and having a better than 75% chance to be drafted (16) are the following:
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| Ousmane Dieng, NZ Breakers |
| Trevor Keels, Duke |
| Max Christie, Michigan St. |
| Christian Braun, Kansas |
| Jalen Williams, Santa Clara |
| Justin Lewis, Marquette |
| Josh Minott, Memphis |
| David Roddy, Colorado St. |
| Gabriele Procida, Int'l |
| Oscar Tshiebwe, Kentucky |
| Matteo Spagnolo, Int'l |
| Trevion Williams, Purdue |
| Alondes Williams, Wake Forest |
| Michael Foster, GL Ignite |
| Julian Champagnie, St. John’s |
| Jaime Jaquez, UCLA |
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So it would appears that about 50 of the 58 draft spots are almost certainly locked up.
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Since there are only 58 draft spots this year, who are the next 8 most likely draft picks? I calculate Jaylin Williams of Arkansas at 70%. As for the next most likely, I calculate these next 8 guys as standing about a 40-55% chance of being drafted:
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| Khalifa Diop, Int'l | 55% |
| Yannick Nzosa, Int'l | 55% |
| Caleb Love, North Carolina | 50% |
| Jake LaRavia, Wake Forest | 50% |
| Orlando Robinson, Fresno St. | 40% |
| Jabari Walker, Colorado | 45% |
| Trayce Jackson-Davis, Indiana | 40% |
| Terquavion Smith, N.C. State | 40% |
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This takes us through a full draft of 58 players + 1.
The next group of players (there are about 5 of them, including some big names) is likewise in that 35-40% range of being drafted:
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| Harrison Ingram, Stanford | 35% |
| Peyton Watson, UCLA | 35% |
| Andrew Nembhard, Gonzaga | 35% |
| Drew Timme, Gonzaga | 40% |
| Ron Harper Jr., Rutgers | 40% |
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This has taken us through the Top 64 players per these mock drafts. After that group, I calculate the odds of remaining potential draft picks to have a much lower change of being drafted. Here are 20 players who have had their name mentioned on at least one of the four most prominent mock drafts, along with the odds I see for them being drafted:
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| Dalen Terry, Arizona | 25% |
| Iverson Molinar, Miss State | 20% |
| Dominick Barlow, OT Elite | 15% |
| Jamaree Bouyea, USF | 20% |
| Kellan Grady, Kentucky | 20% |
| Caleb Houstan, Michigan | 25% |
| Julian Strawther, Gonzaga | 20% |
| Isaiah Mobley, USC | 15% |
| Ibou Dianko Badji, Int'l | 15% |
| Ariel Hukporti, Australia | 15% |
| Brady Manek, North Carolina | 15% |
| JD Notae, Arkansas | 15% |
| Armando Bacot, North Carolina | 15% |
| Johnny Juzang, UCLA | 15% |
| Jordan Hall, St. Joseph’s | 10% |
| Kameron McGusty, Miami | 10% |
| Dereon Seabron, N.C. State | 10% |
| Taevion Kinsey, Marshall | 10% |
| Izaiah Brockington, Iowa St. | 10% |
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Here is a final group of about 9 names who have had their names appear in less-esteemed draft rankings, along with the odds I calculate for them to be drafted:
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| Pete Nance, Northwestern |
| Zach Edey, Purdue |
| Tyler Burton,Richmond |
| Matthew Mayer, Baylor |
| Moussa Diabate, Michigan |
| Jaden Shackelford, Alabama |
| Colby Jones, Xavier |
| Terrence Shannon Jr, Texas Tech |
| Jamarion Sharp, W Kentucky |
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