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Quick Look at Arizona Roster Turnover

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  • Quick Look at Arizona Roster Turnover

    As you've probably heard, Arizona has experienced some roster turnover this season. It's not perfectly clean in terms of newcomers and losses (e.g., freshman KJ Lewis is kind of, but not really, taking a spot played by Cedric Henderson last season. Obviously, guys like Oumar Ballo, Pelle Larsson and especially Kylan Boswell are expected to improve. But it is interesting that Arizona has replaced the three main starters it lost -- Azuolas Tubelis, Kerr Kriisa, and Courtney Ramey -- with three fairly prominent transfers: Keshad Johnson, Jaden Bradley, and Caleb Love.

    I did a quick back of the envelop calculation on what it looks like with these replacements. Some interesting numbers below. TS% = true shooting percentage (captures 3-pointers and free throw shooting in efficiency), Use per 30 minute (how many shots, assists, turnovers a player has per 30 minutes of playing time), and Point Generated per 30 minutes (includes points caused by assists and offensive rebounds, and lost by turnovers).
    Player TS% Use/30min Pts Gen./30min
    Tubelis 62.0% 20.3 24.6
    Ramey 54.3% 14.3 17.0
    Kriisa 54.3% 16.2 18.8
    Keshad Johnson 58.6% 10.9 13.4
    Caleb Love 49.5% 18.6 17.8
    Jaden Bradley 49.4% 17.1 18.2
    From the numbers above, you can see that each replacement wasn't as efficient as the player he is replacing -- though Love did generate more points than Ramey on per minute basis, via much higher usage.

    Below is a compilation of the numbers for each group of players:
    Group TS% Use/30min Pts Gen. /90min
    22-23 Cats 57.9% 51.0 60.5
    23-24 Cats 51.7% 47.4 49.6
    Note last year's Cats generated roughly 22% more points (per 90 combined minutes) on just 7.5% more uses.

    I can't say these numbers will be definitive, but Arizona will likely be looking at a scoring loss this upcoming season, compared to the previous one.