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Early yesterday I was thinking of the things that ....

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  • Early yesterday I was thinking of the things that ....

    Originally posted 01-13-2021, 04:05 PM

    .... really make a difference for a team being elite.

    These thoughts, admittedly, were in the context of Enfield now having had several teams with really strong defenses. For example, the 2018 team (final season for JMac, Chimezie and Elijah S.), which saw De'Anthony suspended for the season and the team shockingly miss the NCAA Tourney, was #2 in the Pac-12 in defensive efficiency (essentially points allowed per possession, adjusted for strength of schedule) during conference play. Last season's team was No. 18 nationally in defensive efficiency per KenPom, but still finished outside the KenPom Top 50 and was never ranked. And then there is this season's team: so far, Enfield's best defensive team, ranked No. 13 nationally in defensive efficiency season.

    This all got me thinking: how do we correlate defensive efficiency prowess to elite national status?

    So, I went back through recent years where we had an NCAA Tourney (2015 through 2019) to see just how likely a highly rated defensive efficiency teams would be to be elite nationally overall. Here is what I found:

    For the 2018-19 Season:
    • The Top 13 teams in Defensive Efficiency (per KenPom) all made the NCAA Tournament.
    • Only two teams rated Top 20 in Defensive Efficiency missed the NCAA Tournament (and one of those two was a bubble team).
    • Seven of the Top 20 teams in in Defensive Efficiency were also in the Top 20 in Offensive Efficiency: these were the four No. 1 seeds, a No. 2 seed, a No. 3 seed, and a No. 4 seed; six of the seven won 29+ games.
    • Three No. 2 seeds, two No. 3 seeds, and all four No. 4 seeds were in the Top 20 in Defensive Efficiency.
    • Only One Top 4 seed was outside the Top 50 in Defensive Efficiency.

    For the 2017-18 Season:
    • Only one team in the Top 10 in Defensive Efficiency missed the NCAA Tournament (and it was a bubble team).
    • Only two teams rated Top 20 in Defensive Efficiency missed the NCAA Tournament (both were bubble teams).
    • Only four schools were rated Top 20 in Defensive Efficiency and Offensive Efficiency: these include the National Champion, a Final Four team, and two Top 4 seeds which won 30+ games.
    • Exactly half of the Top 3 seeds, Top 4 seeds, and Top 5 seeds were ranked in the Top 20 in Defensive Efficiency.
    • Only two Top 3 seeds were outside the Top 40 in Defensive Efficiency (both No. 1 seeds, both Top 10 in Offensive Efficiency).

    For the 2016-17 Season:
    • Only one team in the Top 13 (and two teams in the Top 17) in Defensive Efficiency missed the NCAA Tournament.
    • However, seven teams in the Top 21 in Defensive Efficiency missed the NCAA Tournament.
    • Six schools were rated Top 20 in Defensive Efficiency and Offensive Efficiency: all six won 30+ games.
    • Nine of the 16 Top 4 seeds (and an additional Final Four team) ranked in the Top 20 in Defensive Efficiency.
    • Only three Top 4 seeds were outside the Top 40 in Defensive Efficiency.

    For the 2015-16 Season:
    • Five teams in the Top 20 in Defensive Efficiency missed the NCAA Tournament (though one only missed due to probation).
    • Five schools were rated Top 20 in Defensive Efficiency and Offensive Efficiency: four won 29+ games; four were Top 2 seeds; the National Champion was among these five.
    • Only three schools seeded in the Top 4 were rated outside the Top 40 in Defensive Efficiency.
    For the 2014-15 Season:
    • Five teams rated in the Top 20 in Defensive Efficiency missed the NCAA Tournament.
    • Eight schools were rated Top 20 in Defensive Efficiency and Top 21 in Offensive Efficiency: this include three No. 1 seeds and three No. 2 seeds (the fourth No. 2 seed was No. 27 in Offensive Efficiency); seven of those eight schools had 30 wins.
    • Only three schools of the 20 seeded Top 5 had a Defensive Efficiency outside of the Top 40.

    Thoughts:

    For the last five seasons where an NCAA Tournament was played:
    1. 81% of the eligible teams rated in the Top 20 (and 88% of the eligible teams rated in the Top 10) in Defensive Efficiency made the NCAA Tournament.
    2. 17 of the 19 schools rated in the Top 20 in Defensive Efficiency, which missed the NCAA Tournament, had an Offensive Efficiency rating outside the Top 100.
    3. Only 15 of the 80 (19%) schools which were a Top 4 seed in any of those five years had a Defensive Efficiency outside of the Top 40.
    4. 30 teams were rated Top 20 in Defensive Efficiency and Offensive Efficiency; 27 of those 30 won 29+ games in that season.

    From all this, it's pretty easy to conclude that an elite (i.e., Top 20) Defensive Efficiency is an important harbinger of whether a team will make the NCAA Tournament. It turns out, however, while a Top 20 Defensive Efficiency only gets you 81% surety in making the NCAA Tournament, a Top 20 Offensive Efficiency is even better: 92% likelihood of making the NCAA Tournament, which is even greater if you are a High Major: only 4 High Major teams finished the season ranked in the Top 20 in Offensive Efficiency and missed the NCAA Tournament (Vandy did it twice).

    Similarly, while 88% of the 49 eligible teams rated in the Top 10 in Defensive Efficiency made the NCAA Tournament, the full 100% of the 50 rated in the Top 10 in Offensive Efficiency made the NCAA Tournament.

    The bottom line is that if you are a Top 20 Defensive Efficiency team, and your offense even has a pulse (Top 100 nationally), you're basically a lock for the NCAA Tournament; but if you're a Top 20 Offensive Efficiency team, and you're a High Major, you're basically a lock for the Tournament no matter how bad your defense is.

    But what if you want to be more than just an NCAA Tournament team? What if you want to be a true player in college hoops? Well, that's when you need to have the offensive efficiency to go along with the defensive efficiency.

    Over these five seasons, about 48 teams finished the season with 29+ wins and a Top 4 (or deserved a Top 4) NCAA Tournament seeding. These are the truly elite teams of those five seasons. Of those 48 truly elite teams, only 6 had an Offensive Efficiency rating outside the Top 20; on the other hand, 12 of those 48 (about 25%) had a Defensive Efficiency Rating in the Top 20.

    Only a grand total of 18 schools -- less than four per season -- managed to pull off elite achievements (29+ wins, plus a Top 4 NCAA Tournament seeding) without having both a Top 20 Offensive Efficiency and a Top 20 Defensive Efficiency.

    And, in case you are wondering ... after last night's game with Riverside, USC's Offensive Efficiency has dropped to No. 44 nationally. The good news is that USC is only 2 points per 100 possessions outside a Top 20 Offensive Efficiency; the problem is the same is true for about 35 other schools.


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