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Note: I wrote this after the OSU game and before listening to the Pod this morning. It's funny how we seem to have come to similar conclusions.
There were questions surrounding the guard play on the team going into the season, and they have only been exacerbated by the past two games. One of the biggest questions was in regards to Ethan Anderson. Last season he did not play at a Pac-12 level as he had the second-lowest PER of all Pac-12 point guards who played at least 15 minutes per game. But he was out of shape for a large portion of the season after coming back from an injury, so there was hope that offseason improvement and getting in better shape would lead to positive on-court returns. So how have things gone this season?
To figure that out, I first looked at Player Efficiency Rating (PER). It’s an advanced stat that tries to put a player’s total contributions into one number. 15 is considered average, so any rating above 15 is above average and any rating below 15 is below average.
Here are the PER ratings for the players in the rotation averaging at least 15 min/game:
The first thing that stands out is that all of the main rotation players are contributing at an above-average level besides EA who is significantly below average. Goodwin and Mobley are also clearly the two best players on the team according to PER which checks out with what we have seen so far this season. This trend is borne out in all the available player measurement stats I have seen. Whether it’s Box plus minus, Win shares per 40, or efficiency differential, Mobley and Goodwin are at the top while EA is at the bottom.
https://basketball.realgm.com/info/glossary
To put EA’s PER of 10.9 in context, it is the 6th worst out of the 40 guards in the PAC-12 that play at least 15 minutes per game (guards - anyone listed as a PG or SG by RealGM). This is pretty clearly not playing at a PAC-12 level and especially not at the level of a team ranked in the top 5. So why are things so bad?
If you look at EA’s stats, he gets a lot of assists, shoots a terrible percentage from two, a good percentage from three, and 33% from the line(on a small number of attempts). I think his three-point percentage is misleading. He tends to only take catch and shoot threes where he is wide open (from my observation). He has a slow release and needs to get his whole base set before shooting. He doesn’t take many off the dribble threes or threes where there is a man near him. So while he shoots 40% on wide-open threes, he is not a great three-point shooter overall as he is never a threat off the dribble or off movement. Based on his strengths, one would guess he is a pass-first point guard who is not much of a threat to score. But that is not the case.
A player like that should have a usage rate around or above 20%. EA’s usage rate is only 15.9%. The two guards in the PAC-12 with the closest usage rates are Pelle Larsson at 16% and David Singleton at 15.2%. These two are both off-ball catch-and-shoot players. EA has the usage rate of an off-ball shooter while being weak in all areas required to be an off-ball shooter. It’s no wonder he has the lowest offensive rating(102.4) of all the main rotation players on the team. His defensive rating(95.8) is also the worst of all the main rotation players.
There are two solutions to this problem. First, you can play EA in a higher usage, on-ball role. I don’t think he has proven that he would be successful in that role either. The other option is to give his minutes to someone else, which brings me to my conclusion. I think EA and Reese should swap minutes(EA 21.9 mpg, Reese 10 mpg currently).
Reese currently plays less than 15 minutes per game which makes his advanced stats less reliable. Reese has a PER of 16.6, the fourth highest efficiency differential on the team, and the third-highest box plus-minus and win shares per 40 on the team. He has a usage rate of 15.5% and fits the qualifications for a player with that usage much better than EA. He shoots around 40% on threes and clearly has a much better shot than EA(he has a higher free throw percentage and you can tell by looking at it). EA has a much higher assist percentage but overall has a much worse offensive rating. Reese is also a good rebounder and rebounds at about the same level as Drew(according to TRB%).
To me, it seems like the easiest way to improve the team is to give EA’s minutes to Reese. Take a player way below average at their role and replace them with someone who is slightly above average at the role.
There were questions surrounding the guard play on the team going into the season, and they have only been exacerbated by the past two games. One of the biggest questions was in regards to Ethan Anderson. Last season he did not play at a Pac-12 level as he had the second-lowest PER of all Pac-12 point guards who played at least 15 minutes per game. But he was out of shape for a large portion of the season after coming back from an injury, so there was hope that offseason improvement and getting in better shape would lead to positive on-court returns. So how have things gone this season?
To figure that out, I first looked at Player Efficiency Rating (PER). It’s an advanced stat that tries to put a player’s total contributions into one number. 15 is considered average, so any rating above 15 is above average and any rating below 15 is below average.
Here are the PER ratings for the players in the rotation averaging at least 15 min/game:
| Player | PER |
| Chevez Goodwin | 27.3 |
| Isaiah Mobley | 25.3 |
| Joshua Morgan | 17.8 |
| Max Agbonkpolo | 16.7 |
| Drew Peterson | 16.7 |
| Boogie Ellis | 15.8 |
| Ethan Anderson | 10.9 |
https://basketball.realgm.com/info/glossary
To put EA’s PER of 10.9 in context, it is the 6th worst out of the 40 guards in the PAC-12 that play at least 15 minutes per game (guards - anyone listed as a PG or SG by RealGM). This is pretty clearly not playing at a PAC-12 level and especially not at the level of a team ranked in the top 5. So why are things so bad?
If you look at EA’s stats, he gets a lot of assists, shoots a terrible percentage from two, a good percentage from three, and 33% from the line(on a small number of attempts). I think his three-point percentage is misleading. He tends to only take catch and shoot threes where he is wide open (from my observation). He has a slow release and needs to get his whole base set before shooting. He doesn’t take many off the dribble threes or threes where there is a man near him. So while he shoots 40% on wide-open threes, he is not a great three-point shooter overall as he is never a threat off the dribble or off movement. Based on his strengths, one would guess he is a pass-first point guard who is not much of a threat to score. But that is not the case.
A player like that should have a usage rate around or above 20%. EA’s usage rate is only 15.9%. The two guards in the PAC-12 with the closest usage rates are Pelle Larsson at 16% and David Singleton at 15.2%. These two are both off-ball catch-and-shoot players. EA has the usage rate of an off-ball shooter while being weak in all areas required to be an off-ball shooter. It’s no wonder he has the lowest offensive rating(102.4) of all the main rotation players on the team. His defensive rating(95.8) is also the worst of all the main rotation players.
There are two solutions to this problem. First, you can play EA in a higher usage, on-ball role. I don’t think he has proven that he would be successful in that role either. The other option is to give his minutes to someone else, which brings me to my conclusion. I think EA and Reese should swap minutes(EA 21.9 mpg, Reese 10 mpg currently).
Reese currently plays less than 15 minutes per game which makes his advanced stats less reliable. Reese has a PER of 16.6, the fourth highest efficiency differential on the team, and the third-highest box plus-minus and win shares per 40 on the team. He has a usage rate of 15.5% and fits the qualifications for a player with that usage much better than EA. He shoots around 40% on threes and clearly has a much better shot than EA(he has a higher free throw percentage and you can tell by looking at it). EA has a much higher assist percentage but overall has a much worse offensive rating. Reese is also a good rebounder and rebounds at about the same level as Drew(according to TRB%).
To me, it seems like the easiest way to improve the team is to give EA’s minutes to Reese. Take a player way below average at their role and replace them with someone who is slightly above average at the role.
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