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  • Data on Guards

    Gonna give you some data on our guards from recent games, to continue on the discussion on here.

    For context, this is for the games post-Utah ... after Utah, SC reached its apex in KenPom at #9. Since then, SC has slid, but continued to play well and won all but one of its games. One difference you do see is in the guard play, which had been pretty stellar through the Utah game.

    Here is the mean Off Rating (per KenPom)* for our two primary guards since the Utah win:
    Boogie: 87.1
    Ethan: 86.1

    If you adjust for the two outliers (best and worst games), their mean Off Ratings are as follows for those games:
    Boogie: 89.7
    Ethan: 81.8

    * Note: 100 is the mean Offensive Rating in college basketball

    Here is the 3-point shooting since Utah:
    Boogie: 8/35**
    Ethan: 3/15***

    ** Boogie is actually 5/13 in the last two games; so he was only 3/22 in the six games immediately after the Utah game.
    *** Ethan hit all three 3-pointers in the same game (Georgia Tech); he is 0/11 from behind the arc in the other 7 games since Utah.

    As far as defense goes, one metric is points per possession allowed. Since the Utah game, USC is allowed 0.92 points per possession. Here are the points per possession while these guys are on the court:
    Boogie: 0.91
    Ethan: 0.93

    Both are about average, with Boogie slightly above, and Ethan slightly below.

    For what it's worth, Reese is at 0.90 points per possession allowed when he is on the court for those games; but the offense's points per possession scored is well below average when Reese is on the court, while it's basically average for Boogie and Ethan.

    Finally, here is a look at "Points Above Median" (per HoopLens), which measures "how much each player affects his team's shooting efficiency," by "calculating how many additional points a player scores when compared with what a 'median' player would have scored with those shot attempts."
    Boogie is at 21.2.
    Ethan is at -1.2.




  • #2
    Another interesting guard stat is box creation. Box creation is "an estimate for the number of open shots created for teammates (per 100 possessions)" and was created to account for problems when measuring a player's creation using assists. This stat was created by Ben Taylor and he does a great job explaining the problems with assists and the methodology of box creation here. Assists measure a pass to an Isaiah Mobley three at the start of a possession the same as a ballhandler manipulating the defense and creating a wide-open shot for a teammate. The first is a result of Isaiah Mobley's skill whereas the second is a result of the ballhandlers skill. But both count as an assist for the ballhandler.

    I tried applying box creation to college basketball and I think the results are pretty interesting. I included all the main ballhandlers on USC as well as some of the other top guards in the conference/ncaa.
    Player Assists/100 Box Creation
    Ethan Anderson 6.6 3.5
    Boogie Ellis 5.4 4.3
    Drew Peterson 6.1 4.6
    Reese Waters 2.7 1.7
    Isaiah Mobley 5.2 5.6
    Tyger Campbell(UCLA) 8.6 7.9
    Kerr Krisa(Arizona) 9.6 7.1
    James Akinjo(Baylor) 10.9 10.7

    I have a few takeaways from this. First, we don't have a guard that is near the level of those on the other top teams in the conference in terms of creating open shots for teammates. Secondly, while Anderson has the most assists per 100 possessions on the team, the number of open shots he creates per 100 is lower than Mobley, Boogie, and Drew. And finally, Reese is not great at creating for others. As pointed out by you guys on the last couple of pods, he is not a solution to our overall guard problems. But, there is a good chance he is an improvement over EA in their current roles.

    Comment


    • #3
      Do you mind giving us a high level summary of how box creation is calculated?

      Comment


      • Btif
        Btif commented
        Editing a comment
        Ben Taylor hand tracked a stat he developed called opportunities created. An opportunity created is any time a player creates an open shot for a teammate. This includes:
        An open attempt
        An open “hockey” attempt (extra passing)
        A foul at the rim on a layup attempt (created by the scrambling of the defense)
        An offensive rebound putback (created because the rebounder’s defender was forced to help)

        He then tried to create a way to predict a player’s opportunities created using only stats in the box score. So Box creation is just a formula that uses box score stats to try and estimate a player’s opportunities created. He used a combination of assists, points and turnovers, and 3 point proficiency(which basically is a measure of 3 point percentage that accounts for the number of attempts). Each stat has a weighting factor in his formula. He likely performed some sort of regression analysis to determine the weighting factors that gave him the lowest average error. The error for his stat is about plus or minus .4 shots created per 100 possessions.

        Box Creation = Ast*0.1843+(Pts+TOV)*0.0969-2.3021*(3pt proficiency)+ 0.0582*(Ast*(Pts+TOV)*3pt proficiency)-1.1942

        3pt proficiency = (2/(1+EXP(-3PA))-1)*3P%
        (All stats are per 100 possessions)

        All I did was plug this formula into a spreadsheet. The data he used to create the stat was from the NBA so the reliability of what I did is questionable. The process of him creating this stat was obviously much more complicated than my summary.
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