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I won't belabor this last week of games. To put it simply, we played worse defense and worse offense, independently and simultaneous, than in any other three game stretch this season. Perhaps it's not surprising that these performances came on the heels of a covid pause and a second trip to the Bay Area in 5 days, including and followed by empty arenas.
Obviously, it's a terrible look that everywhere else in the country (besides USC, UCLA & Stanford), schools -- and all professional sports franchises -- can figure out how to play with fans, but for some reason the most heavily vaccinated parts of the country, with a vaccine passport mandated for entry, can't figure this out. But, we're long past the time that covid interventions could somehow be justified based on data and analysis. So let's move on.
In reality, it wasn't just the layoff and empty arenas that is ailing us. Some pretty obvious deficiencies which have been present all season finally got exposed. There are various ways of articulating these, including 3-point shooting offense and defense, but the main problem is our guard play. We lack a complimentary guard for Boogie Ellis, plain and simple. This has been stated on a few recent podcasts.
Here is some data the illustrate the issue:
No. 1: USC's 3-Point Shooting
Prior to the games of this past week (i.e., through the Cal game), everyone on the team other than Isaiah Mobley (our top 3-point shooter) was shooting 33.6% from behind the arc. Boogie Ellis was right in line (and actually slightly below average) at 33.0%.
However, during the 3-game stretch of this past week, there was essentially a team-wide collapse in 3-point shooting outside of Isaiah Mobley and Boogie Ellis. The rest of the team -- basically our "guards and wings" -- shot 8 for 33 from behind the arc: for 24.2%. That's less than three 3-pointers made per game by our non-Boogie guards and wings during this stretch. If you're wondering who hit those 3-pointers ... Drew Peterson made 6 of those 8.
No. 2: USC Defending the 3-Point Line
This is where it gets super ugly. Prior to this past week, USC's opponents were shooting 27.5% from behind the arc, basically allowing 6.3 3-pointers made on 23 shot attempts per game. However, this week, USC's opponents shot 46.8% from 3-point range, hitting almost 10 shots per game on about 21 attempts. The difference in allowing 27.5% shooting from behind to the arc and 46.8% from behind the arc is the difference between the 14th best 3-point FG% defense in college basketball and the DEAD LAST 358th 3-point FG% defense!
That's a total collapse in guarding the 3-point line. You can say one game is an outlier and two games is a coincidence. But three games in a row is a trend.
No. 3: Overall Defense by Guards & Wings
There's an anecdotal piece here and a data piece here. On the anecdotal side, we all saw our guards and wings giving up lots of open looks from 3 and repeatedly allowing penetration by Oregon's perimeter guys; Drew, who is tall, but not quick of foot, was beaten repeatedly.
The data also reflects the problem. In all of the games played prior to this past week (i.e., through the Cal game), USC had an effective Field Goal Defense of 40.6% (best in the nation) and allowed 0.87 points per possession, which was top 5 in the country.
However, during the 3-game stretch of this past week, USC had an effective Field Goal Defense of 54.0% (which is would be around 324th in the nation) and allowed 1.01 points per possession, which which is equivalent to about 120th in the country. That is a dramatic fall in the quality of defense.
So, let's take a look at what happened (this is where things get really, really ugly; so brace yourselves):
In this 3-game stretch, USC faced 223 possessions while on defense, giving up an average of 1.01 points per possession.
Among players who played 25 possessions or more during that stretch, the player who was on the court when the fewest points per possession were allowed was ....
Reese Waters with 0.78 points per possession allowed on 63 defensive possessions.
Isaiah Mobley, Boogie Ellis and Max were all in the range of allowing 1.00 to 1.02 points per possession. Drew and Vez were a bit worse at 1.05 & 1.06 points per possession allowed.
And then there was Ethan. In 89 defensive possessions played, USC allowed 1.11 points per possession when Ethan was on the court -- this is 0.24 points per possession more than USC had been allowing prior to this stretch of games. And the main culprit actually wasn't Effective Field Goal Percentage allowed, although it was bad at 56.3%. The main culprit was actually lack of turnovers forced. USC forced turnovers on only 9.0% of possessions when Ethan was on the court. For perspective, the very worst turnovers forced percentage of any team in the country right now is North Dakota State which forces turnovers on only 12.4% of possessions. USC's defense with Ethan on the court during this stretch of games was approximately 30% worse than the very worst turnover-forcing defense of all of the 358 teams in Division 1 college basketball.
Conclusion
It is completely not fair to pin all the troubles of our team this past week on Ethan. The whole team, other than Isaiah Mobley, played poorly at various times. But the experiment with Ethan has not worked. The offense with Ethan on the court was not scoring (45.7% eFG% offense) and the defense was outright terrible: allowing 44.4% shooting from behind the arc and 50% shooting inside the arc, while only forcing turnovers on 9% of defensive possessions: the combination of allowing 56.4 eFG% defense and only forcing turnovers on 9% of possessions while on the court is absolutely miserable.
There is no perfect solution here. The team clearly needs a starting guard to play next to Boogie, who can defend the perimeter, create shots on offense and hit open 3-pointers. Even on that last metric -- hitting open 3-pointers -- after starting the season hot, Ethan has now been shut out from behind the arc in 9 of the last 10 games, going 0/13 in those nine games.
Unfortunately, USC does not have the player it needs. This past offseason was a miss on the portal for the proper compliment to Boogie; for a variety of reasons, including political ones involving the Compton Magic, the coaches felt constrained in who they could add to the team. As a result, USC passed on guys like KJ Simpson, Matt Bradley, Ian Martinez, Bryce Hamilton, and Terrell Brown, and didn't pursue Alfonso Plummer and Chris Lykes. The coaches now seem smart to have passed on Martinez (who I loved), Hamilton (who I didn't) and Lykes (who I was confused about). But it does seem we needed somebody.
Reese Water was not that ideal fit for a compliment to Boogie. He's not really a ball handler and doesn't do much to create his own shot. He does, however, defend and he can hit 3s. I think he's the best option we have by far right now.
Obviously, it's a terrible look that everywhere else in the country (besides USC, UCLA & Stanford), schools -- and all professional sports franchises -- can figure out how to play with fans, but for some reason the most heavily vaccinated parts of the country, with a vaccine passport mandated for entry, can't figure this out. But, we're long past the time that covid interventions could somehow be justified based on data and analysis. So let's move on.
In reality, it wasn't just the layoff and empty arenas that is ailing us. Some pretty obvious deficiencies which have been present all season finally got exposed. There are various ways of articulating these, including 3-point shooting offense and defense, but the main problem is our guard play. We lack a complimentary guard for Boogie Ellis, plain and simple. This has been stated on a few recent podcasts.
Here is some data the illustrate the issue:
No. 1: USC's 3-Point Shooting
Prior to the games of this past week (i.e., through the Cal game), everyone on the team other than Isaiah Mobley (our top 3-point shooter) was shooting 33.6% from behind the arc. Boogie Ellis was right in line (and actually slightly below average) at 33.0%.
However, during the 3-game stretch of this past week, there was essentially a team-wide collapse in 3-point shooting outside of Isaiah Mobley and Boogie Ellis. The rest of the team -- basically our "guards and wings" -- shot 8 for 33 from behind the arc: for 24.2%. That's less than three 3-pointers made per game by our non-Boogie guards and wings during this stretch. If you're wondering who hit those 3-pointers ... Drew Peterson made 6 of those 8.
No. 2: USC Defending the 3-Point Line
This is where it gets super ugly. Prior to this past week, USC's opponents were shooting 27.5% from behind the arc, basically allowing 6.3 3-pointers made on 23 shot attempts per game. However, this week, USC's opponents shot 46.8% from 3-point range, hitting almost 10 shots per game on about 21 attempts. The difference in allowing 27.5% shooting from behind to the arc and 46.8% from behind the arc is the difference between the 14th best 3-point FG% defense in college basketball and the DEAD LAST 358th 3-point FG% defense!
That's a total collapse in guarding the 3-point line. You can say one game is an outlier and two games is a coincidence. But three games in a row is a trend.
No. 3: Overall Defense by Guards & Wings
There's an anecdotal piece here and a data piece here. On the anecdotal side, we all saw our guards and wings giving up lots of open looks from 3 and repeatedly allowing penetration by Oregon's perimeter guys; Drew, who is tall, but not quick of foot, was beaten repeatedly.
The data also reflects the problem. In all of the games played prior to this past week (i.e., through the Cal game), USC had an effective Field Goal Defense of 40.6% (best in the nation) and allowed 0.87 points per possession, which was top 5 in the country.
However, during the 3-game stretch of this past week, USC had an effective Field Goal Defense of 54.0% (which is would be around 324th in the nation) and allowed 1.01 points per possession, which which is equivalent to about 120th in the country. That is a dramatic fall in the quality of defense.
So, let's take a look at what happened (this is where things get really, really ugly; so brace yourselves):
In this 3-game stretch, USC faced 223 possessions while on defense, giving up an average of 1.01 points per possession.
Among players who played 25 possessions or more during that stretch, the player who was on the court when the fewest points per possession were allowed was ....
Reese Waters with 0.78 points per possession allowed on 63 defensive possessions.
Isaiah Mobley, Boogie Ellis and Max were all in the range of allowing 1.00 to 1.02 points per possession. Drew and Vez were a bit worse at 1.05 & 1.06 points per possession allowed.
And then there was Ethan. In 89 defensive possessions played, USC allowed 1.11 points per possession when Ethan was on the court -- this is 0.24 points per possession more than USC had been allowing prior to this stretch of games. And the main culprit actually wasn't Effective Field Goal Percentage allowed, although it was bad at 56.3%. The main culprit was actually lack of turnovers forced. USC forced turnovers on only 9.0% of possessions when Ethan was on the court. For perspective, the very worst turnovers forced percentage of any team in the country right now is North Dakota State which forces turnovers on only 12.4% of possessions. USC's defense with Ethan on the court during this stretch of games was approximately 30% worse than the very worst turnover-forcing defense of all of the 358 teams in Division 1 college basketball.
Conclusion
It is completely not fair to pin all the troubles of our team this past week on Ethan. The whole team, other than Isaiah Mobley, played poorly at various times. But the experiment with Ethan has not worked. The offense with Ethan on the court was not scoring (45.7% eFG% offense) and the defense was outright terrible: allowing 44.4% shooting from behind the arc and 50% shooting inside the arc, while only forcing turnovers on 9% of defensive possessions: the combination of allowing 56.4 eFG% defense and only forcing turnovers on 9% of possessions while on the court is absolutely miserable.
There is no perfect solution here. The team clearly needs a starting guard to play next to Boogie, who can defend the perimeter, create shots on offense and hit open 3-pointers. Even on that last metric -- hitting open 3-pointers -- after starting the season hot, Ethan has now been shut out from behind the arc in 9 of the last 10 games, going 0/13 in those nine games.
Unfortunately, USC does not have the player it needs. This past offseason was a miss on the portal for the proper compliment to Boogie; for a variety of reasons, including political ones involving the Compton Magic, the coaches felt constrained in who they could add to the team. As a result, USC passed on guys like KJ Simpson, Matt Bradley, Ian Martinez, Bryce Hamilton, and Terrell Brown, and didn't pursue Alfonso Plummer and Chris Lykes. The coaches now seem smart to have passed on Martinez (who I loved), Hamilton (who I didn't) and Lykes (who I was confused about). But it does seem we needed somebody.
Reese Water was not that ideal fit for a compliment to Boogie. He's not really a ball handler and doesn't do much to create his own shot. He does, however, defend and he can hit 3s. I think he's the best option we have by far right now.
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