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Deep Data Dive into Portal PG Candidates

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  • Deep Data Dive into Portal PG Candidates

    Below is a deep data dive into four of the possible PG transfer candidates: Darrion Trammell, Marks Sears, Tristen Newton, Joel Murray and Ta'Lon Cooper.

    Quick Explainer on the data below:

    --Pts Allowed / 74 possessions: HoopLens numbers on the amount of points opponents scored, per 74 possessions (average game), while the player was on the court.

    -- Opponent Defense: This the KenPom rating off the adjusted number of points per 100 possessions the opponents of the player gave up during the course of the season; so the lower the number, the better.

    -- Win Share / Game: This is the Basketball-Reference "Win Share" number (the number of "Wins" the player is supposed to have contributed towards) per Game.

    -- Box +/-: This is another Basketball-Reference Stat, meant to estimates a basketball player’s contribution to the team when that player is on the court, with 0.0 being average

    My observations are at the bottom.

    .
    .
    NAME Darrion Trammell Marks Sears Tristen Newton Joel Murray Ta'Lon Cooper
    School Seattle U Ohio East Carolina Long Beach State Morehead State
    Height 5'10" 6'0" 6'5" 5'11" 6'4"
    KenPom Offense Rating 106.0 111.9 106.4 103.3 107.8
    PtsAllowed/74 poss 66.6 70.3 71.8 71.8 68.1
    Usage Rate 28.3% 29.6% 28.0% 27.2% 18.6%
    eFG% 46.6% 50.7% 49.9% 47.4% 49.1%
    TS% 54.3% 58.1% 57.5% 53.8% 52.0%
    Assist Rate 31.8% 24.9% 34.4% 20.1% 32.0%
    Turnover Rate 17.4% 17.8% 20.7% 16.0% 21.2%
    FT% 82.6% 88.3% 87.9% 85.3% 65.5%
    2P% 43.8% 46.1% 49.8% 45.9% 46.2%
    3P% 34.0% 41.0% 33.3% 36.9% 35.3%
    Opp Def 105.8 106.7 101.1 102.5 103.8
    Steal Rate 4.3% 2.6% 2.4% 2.6% 1.6%
    Rebounds/100poss 6.3 9.7 8.0 5.2 8.0
    Points Scored/40min 20.7 22.0 20.3 20.8 10.7
    Win Share/gm 0.165 0.177 0.127 0.106 0.118
    Box +/- 6.0 4.9 4.9 1.3 2.2
    .
    .

    The first thing to note is how similar the numbers are for Trammell, Sears, Newton and Murray are: they all have a usage rate between 27-30% (with Sears being the highest); they all shoot between 43.5-50% from 2P range (with Newton being the best); they all shoot between 33-41% from 3 (with Sears being the best); they all score between 20-22 points per 30 minutes; and they all shoot over 80% from the free throw line.

    Here are the notable differences:

    -- Ta'Lon Cooper is a lower usage, lower scoring player, who otherwise has similar efficiency numbers.

    -- Cooper and Murray don't contribute as much toward team performance as Trammell, Sears and Newton, per the box score numbers.

    -- Mark Sears is clearly the best scorer, with Tristen Newton just behind him; Murray and Trammell are less efficient from the field.

    -- Newton and Trammell are a cut above when it comes to assist rate; though Newton has a bit of a turnover issue.

    -- Sears, Newton and Murray all have nice steal numbers, but Trammell is noticeably better; indeed, it's the biggest single separator in any stat. Cooper is not a plus steals guy.

    -- Perhaps because Trammell steals the ball more, his Box Plus-Minus is the best.

    By the numbers, Trammell, Sears and Newton are the top three here. If you're looking for a jitterbug who will steal and distribute more, that's Trammell. If you're looking for a tougher guy who will score the ball more and more efficiently, that's Sears. If you're looking for a longer player who stuffs the stat sheet and score from inside the arc more efficiently, that's Newton.

  • #2
    Trammell as we know is an Aztec. Sears said he's down to Mississippi State, Georgetown, Bama, Miami & Texas. Cooper seems like a take only if we can't get anyone else.

    Really hope we're making some headway with Newton.

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    • #3
      Looking at those numbers, Cooper is a pass for me.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Hoss View Post
        Trammell as we know is an Aztec. Sears said he's down to Mississippi State, Georgetown, Bama, Miami & Texas. Cooper seems like a take only if we can't get anyone else.

        Really hope we're making some headway with Newton.
        I wonder if there is a plan to make a run at Iverson Molinar or someone like that.

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